Knock Knock -No One There. India's citizens will be left to fend for themselves as the parliamentary Opposition will disintegrate in 2019.
For those looking forward to the 2019 general elections, here's a warning - it will look exactly like the U.P. assembly and Delhi MCD polls. The BJP will sweep it.
Here's Why:
1. 4Ms and Propaganda Principle 1, 2 & 3: Jumla is rhetoric. Contradiction is a layering of messages. Nothing is permanent in politics.
They have the Men, they have the Might, and they have the Money too: More, they have the mood on their side. And sheer brilliance.
Performance, facts, data—these have ceased to matter. Those who think the Sangh is stupid and call this "the Jumla Sarkar," have got the most important communication principle wrong.
I'm told Stanford has repackaged it as moral psychology.
But when people of my generation were educating ourselves, in Aristotelian times, "Jumla" used to be called Rhetoric.
The Sangh is a master of rhetoric.
It knows how to create the EXACT rhetoric, at different levels of information consumers.
That's why it SEEMS to contradict itself. But it really isn't.
It's a communication strategy.
They always have the message right on point for whoever they want to connect with. Sometimes this message spills over to other consumers and creates confusion. The MNC consumers get the swadeshi message, and the "integral humanism" consumers get the “rape dead Muslim women," message.
But the Sangh is aware of the spillover and has a management strategy in place. It uses key spokesmen, at key points, to manage the costs. Sambit Patra and Naina for daily briefings. Kanchan Gupta for more involved conversations. Makarand Paranjpe for academia, Swarajyamag for intellectuals.
The riff-raff are too many to count. Zee News, whose strategy is evolving brilliantly on a daily basis; Rajat Sharma; newspapers they're buying or bullying by the dozens in all languages; Shiv Sena and its communication factory and so on.
Yet, when the costs become too high—as with Smriti Irani—they don't hesitate to ruthlessly cut the cord. She'll be back, when the time is right and if she behaves. Nothing is permanent in politics, and no one is untouchable.
Because they're playing the long con.
It is not stupidity. It is brilliance.
2. It’s everything the Opposition doesn’t have - no men, money, mood, might or brilliance.
The Opposition has NONE of the above. NO OPPOSITION PARTY has the men, the might, the money, the mood or even a tenth of the brilliance the Sangh has.
There is not a single congress worker who will march unless he's paid to. That's the simple fact of the matter.
The Congress is dead in the water. Write its obituary and get on with it.
At the time of our greatest peril, there is a tendency to be most nostalgic.
But nostalgia can sometimes be a friend. Sometimes, it can be an enemy of the future.
3. This time, Nostalgia is the Enemy.
Nehru is dead. So is Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi. They are the past.
The Congress was born in the throes of the Freedom Struggle. It is over 100 years old.
This struggle needs a newer, more youthful leadership. People with fire in their belly. Hungry and angry. Refusing to compromise.
The Congress isn't that party anymore. It hasn't been that party for a few decades. The Congress is the party that made BJP possible; that MAKES THE BJP possible every single election.
I have friends who are die-hard Congress fans. But if ever there was a time for bitter truths, this is it. Surely, SOME things matter more than loyalty to a party?
4. That leaves the non-Congress Opposition. Well, what about them?
AAP? It lost Delhi Municipal. Kejriwal threatened a "movement" if he lost and made his first major compromise with a 'graceful defeat.'
It WILL be first of many major compromises he will make.
Second Rule of Fight Club—Don’t make threats you don't follow up on.
Then there's the little matter of AAP's non-existence in most of India.
Local opposition parties? Either they're lining up to tie-up with the BJP; or they're all fighting with each other. U.P. and Bengal are eminent examples. Delhi is too, by the way. Read the non-EVM reason that Yogendra Yadav gave for Kejriwal's loss.
If you're looking for a viable, existing, political opposition to the BJP in 2019; Knock Knock -- there's no one there.
5. EVMs
I love technology, always have, always will. I normally believe that the solution to the ills of technology is more technology. But on this, I am THAT loony. There are some things that are best analog or brick and mortar.
MONEY and VOTES are two things, I firmly believe, should stay physical. There is evidence and MORE that EVMs are giving out false votes. Yet, we are always given an explanation we believe, because WE WANT TO.
We buy silly arguments like "only some are". But they came "from U.P. and didn't get enough time to rest (purge, puke?)"; But "they were not provided by the EC!"
The worst yesterday: "Tamper-able doesn't mean they were tampered with!!!"
The meme forgets to mention that they were apparently designed so that one cannot prove they were tampered with. (An alleged security feature so stupid, it beggars belief.)
But we are ready to buy any argument that doesn't force us to make hard choices.
Postscript
So, what are the hard choices?
The first hard choice is to let go of the imagination of hope.
To let go, is not to despair, but to stop pretending.
Reality begins where pretensions stop.
And it is only when we face reality, that we can begin to imagine action at all.
The Sangh is here to stay. It is not going away in 2019.
It will be raiding our homes, our shops, are kids, wives and daughters. It is killing people on the roads in broad daylight. No party or leader has stopped them. No one WILL stop them. No one's coming to help us. It is going to get worse, not better.
Now what are we prepared to do to save ourselves?
Ends.
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